Big warm up in store after below zero temperatures!

Current Conditions:

Like Bill Cosby, I'm sure a lot of people are going to be saying Hallelujah when they see the temperatures for this weekend.  A fairly zonal flow exists over our area in the upper part of the atmosphere indicating calm conditions.  Upper level moisture is not present over our area, however winds are out of the southwest bringing clouds from a low pressure system located over Texas.  Since the winds are out of the south, Warm Air Advection is occurring allowing our temperatures to warm up considerably compared to what it has been the past few days.  At the surface, high pressure is centered over Virginia and North Carolina. Since winds around high pressure flow clockwise, this is the reason for the winds being out of the south/southwest today.  Current temperature as of 2:52 P.M. CDT is 39° under partly cloudy skies.  Winds are out of the southwest at 4 mph.  Our low this morning was 16°.   

Figure 1: Visible Satellite valid for 12:30 P.M. CDT on January 8, 2014.

Forecast Discussion:

For the rest of today, high pressure will continue to dominate our weather today.  Expect a high of 40°.  Tomorrow, the low pressure system that is over Texas will slide to the northeast and high pressure will move out.  Previously, the models were showing some possible wintry precipitation with this system, there is a chance that some precipitation will fall as a wintry mix.  However, temperatures will warm up once the precipitation arrives, so the changeover will be very quick.  Current timing on precipitation puts it in Cheatham at 9:00 A.M. CDT and should move out by Thursday night.  These showers will be very light in nature and accumulations will be around 0.01" to 0.10" (Figure 2).

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast valid for today (Wed. Jan. 8) at 6:00 P.M. CDT - Thursday, Jan. 9 at 6:00 P.M. CDT.

Friday, winds will remain out of the south causing our temperatures to warm up around 50°.  Due to the winds out of the south, and upper level moisture will be available I can't rule out a possible pop-up shower Friday.  The chance is very slim.  A surface low will move to the northeast Friday night into Saturday.  Winds will remain out of the south causing our temps Friday night into Saturday to be mild.  The system will bring rain for Saturday and cooler temperatures for Sunday.  Current timing puts the rain in Cheatham around 9:00 A.M. CDT Saturday morning and will move out by noon.  This timing could change.  Rain accumulations could be from 0.50" to 1.00".  Saturday night into Sunday winds will turn out of the west as the low pressure system pushes off to the northeast.  Winds will then turn out of the south once again Sunday night into Monday as the next system pushes in.  

Days at a Glance:

Wednesday Night: Low around 29° before midnight under mostly cloudy skies. Winds calm.  No chance of precipitation. 

Thursday:  Start off with a morning low around 26° and warm up to 45°.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 mph.  Precipitation will move in as wintry precipitation then quickly change over to all rain.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night:  Low around 40° before midnight.  Winds out of the southeast at 5 mph.  Precipitation will move out by 7:00 P.M. CDT.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday:  Low of 37° and quickly warm up to 55° with winds southeast at 10 mph.  A pop-up shower is possible.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night:  Low of 49° before midnight with winds out of the south at 5 mph.  Some light showers are possible ahead of the main system.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday:  Start off with a morning low around 48° and warm up to 60°.  Rain will enter Cheatham around 9:00 A.M. and will move out by noon.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. 

Saturday Night:  Low around 40° before midnight with winds out of the north at 10 - 15 mph.  No chance of precipitation. 

Sunday:  Morning low of 37° and will warm up to 55°.  Winds out of the north at 5 mph.  No chance of precipitation. 

Sunday Night:  Low around 43 before midnight.  No chance of precipitation.           

"Enjoy the temperatures, you must" ~Yoda    





Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley