Arctic blast Today-Tuesday, another snow chance Wednesday Night-Thursday?

So the big question:  Why didn't we get 2.00" - 3.00" of Snow?:

Let's start off with a graphic which was provided by my friends at the NWS office in Paducah, Kentucky.  The quick answer is the Low tracked farther west than previously expected.

Figure 1:  Graphic provided by the NWS office in Paducah, KY.

One of the hardest things to forecast as a Meteorologist is Winter Weather.  There are so many factors that go into the forecast.  I often times hear people say, "Well that snow forecast was a bust."  Keep in mind that the Number 1 goal of Meteorologists, whether it be on TV or the National Weather Service, is the keep people safe.  A Winter Weather forecast can change very quickly, even during the actual event.  This weather forecast was very tricky.  One of the things a Meteorologists use are Weather Models.  The most common are the ECMWF, NAM, GFS, and RAP for the weather nerds out there.  If you notice in Figure 1, there are 2 lines.  The yellow line shows the track weather models were showing about 2 days before the event, however there was still some uncertainty.  By Saturday Morning, the models started to shift the Low much farther west indicated by the white line in Figure 1.  In the end, most of the county received a dusting to even a 0.50" of snow which was reported on George Boyd Rd just off of Bearwallow Rd. and was the official report used by the NWS office in Nashville.  Now let's talk about today and the rest of the week which could bring another chance of Snow.

Current Conditions:   
An upper level arctic low is centered over Michigan, and generally an arctic low is centered over Canada.  There is no moisture at the 700 mb level which explains why we have partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies today.  Cold air advection continues to occur over our area which explains why the temperatures are so cold today.  At the surface, the low that brought the rain and snow to our area yesterday is already over Quebec, Canada and the cold front stretches from Massachusetts down to Florida.  A surface high is centered over northern Texas and Oklahoma which will slide into our area and be the dominating factor for tomorrow.  The current temperature is 8° F and feels like -10° F as of 12:58 P.M. CDT.  Winds are out of the W at 16 mph.
  

Visible Satellite valid for 12:31 P.M. CDT on January 6, 2014.

Forecast Discussion:   

For tonight temperatures will drop into the single digits to near zero and wind chills will make it feel like -10° F to -15° F.  Caution will need to be taken if you have to be outside.  Tuesday, high pressure will be the dominating factor providing mostly sunny skies for Tuesday.  Wednesday, high pressure will begin to move out causing the winds to turn out of the south which will help us to start warming up.  As the high pressure begins moving out, a system will begin moving in and will bring snow/sleet Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning then changing back over to all rain Thursday.  No accumulation is expected at this time, but I will continue to monitor the situation as time gets closer.  

Monday Night:  Expect a low of 1 with wind chills making it feel like -10° F to -15° F.  No chance of precipitation.    

Tuesday:  Expect a low of 0 with wind chills making it feel like -10° F to -15° F.  High temperature will be 28 under mostly sunny skies.  Winds out of the northwest at 5 mph becoming southwest at 8 mph.  No chance of precipitation.  

Tuesday Night:  Low temperature of 18.  Winds out of the southwest at 8 mph.  No precipitation expected.

Wednesday:  Expect a low temperature of 15 then warming up to 39 degrees under mostly sunny skies becoming partly cloudy.  Winds out of the southwest at 8-10 mph.  No chance of precipitation. 

Wednesday Night:  Expect a low temperature of 28 with winds southeast at 5-8 mph.  Precipitation will begin to move in as snow/sleet.  No accumulation expected.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. 
   

 Forecaster:  Tyler Binkley